CappyCaffeine
Group: Members
Posts: 64
Joined: Jan. 2004 |
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Posted: Jan. 05 2004,02:35 |
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A very thoughtful post, Daniele!
It is a very good question since most Linux users realize but sometimes refuse to admit, standardization is what makes a product continue to grow and not die a depressing death. Standards for cars, TVs, Radios, VCRs (but Beta was betta!) and of course, Windows have kept their longevity unless a superior technology comes to pass.. VCRs are dying due to DVD, analog TV will give way to Digital, etc.
Now we have Linux whose main problem to date is what it "should" be. Desktop, Server, Workstation, what the? Unfortunatly most jacks-of-all-trades become masters of none.
There are some excellent efforts to try and specialize distributions, and although many are saddened by RedHat's departure from consumer products, their business model is sound. Concentrate on one product (Enterprise level OS) and make it the best.
Enthusiaist support is admirable, but most people still need to work a day job. John is doing an incredible job on DSL, but can that momentum be continued indefinitely? Doubtful, though I hope he does!
I agree that the continuation of a distro is dependent on the number of users and their feedback (monetarily or otherwise) to the creators/authors.
One such distribution that seems to be what you feel is a niche product is Peanut Linux which is still a favorite and I had running for 2 years on a work machine, before we had to upgrade all machines to WinXP Pro because of new software.
Interestingly, the server uses Redhat 7.3 with a specialized kernel, but we access the files via a WinXP client. Best of both worlds? Probably. Hopefully, we'll see.
So will DSL last? There are a lot of "dead" computers out there that would be perfectly usable with DSL for the most common applications used. Internet surfing, email, word processing, and accounting packages DO NOT NEED a Pentium 4 3.2 GHz with 1 GB of memory and 250 GB of hard drive space.
However, Home Theater PCs, editing video and burning DVDs do need more horsepower.. I believe that the big guns like Sony, Matushita, RCA and good ole GE are probably developing closed boxes that do all of the above with the same flexibility as contemporary operating systems. Gateway is already testing the waters of computer/consumer electronics convergence and their product line looks pretty impressive.
I can forsee a fork between a basic system that may eventually replace the telephone! Email, voice, messaging, and daily mundane tasks like paying bills and managing finances on one type of machine versus "entertainment" units for gaming and Digital photography/video applications on another.
Tweaking may become less commonplace. 40 years ago, teenagers could become gearheads and tinker with their cars. Now, you can't do much servicing on your own car without specific training. Computers will probably go the same route in the next 40 years if not sooner.
So enjoy the distros while you can since they may all be doomed! (I should get some flames for this post! 
Cappy
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